Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 178.808301 218.061732 267.188448 334.463905 426.282954 5.504879e+02 7.372623e+02
2025-02-23 133.451565 177.798702 240.721716 340.717250 504.492337 7.809312e+02 1.333728e+03
2025-03-02 105.890777 149.078103 215.497912 332.318425 550.983784 9.917700e+02 2.134325e+03
2025-03-09 88.240630 129.285170 196.279875 323.687143 589.533499 1.215667e+03 3.312212e+03
2025-03-16 75.138005 113.409001 178.754629 310.854710 612.082723 1.424695e+03 4.920609e+03
2025-03-23 70.895827 111.012811 183.498209 342.124065 750.254717 2.093436e+03 1.095384e+04
2025-03-30 64.415862 103.450183 176.823250 346.838830 826.071595 2.682221e+03 2.138654e+04
2025-04-06 60.027894 98.846801 174.763302 361.333186 941.350183 3.655173e+03 5.435110e+04
2025-04-13 54.574989 91.395221 165.370713 354.774667 986.819618 4.413119e+03 1.243368e+05
2025-04-20 52.988386 91.095568 170.973476 389.456398 1210.748301 7.051177e+03 1.357111e+06
2025-04-27 51.092829 89.865804 174.238732 419.288156 1451.590491 1.130107e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 48.926012 87.750587 175.014123 442.316786 1694.430097 1.802448e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 46.343616 84.599233 173.164581 458.310218 1940.433116 2.947110e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 43.762253 81.132512 169.941352 469.040238 2184.353735 4.931989e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 40.540882 75.861457 161.137300 456.396661 2259.145725 6.830199e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 37.678932 71.088292 152.893349 443.285844 2322.103690 9.524439e+04 NaN
2025-06-08 34.914677 66.255754 143.764494 423.849580 2314.314993 1.217406e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 34.632342 67.097274 150.322758 471.418343 3021.794403 5.655330e+05 NaN
2025-06-22 33.093333 64.807482 147.648950 478.647895 3361.109499 1.923150e+06 NaN
2025-06-29 32.079823 63.664644 148.126274 500.964579 3974.736632 4.229685e+07 NaN
2025-07-06 30.336046 60.570469 142.295304 490.849544 4132.568697 7.155037e+09 NaN
2025-07-13 30.175758 61.364546 148.473421 544.651319 5573.836730 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 29.770392 61.495622 152.643215 591.532255 7313.994589 NaN NaN